The end of 2015 marks the completion of the fifth full year of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales to key markets from major automakers.
The market for electrified vehicles, which includes hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs), has changed significantly over this time period, but the expected changes during the next 5 years will be even more impactful to the global automotive and energy industries.
The PEV market is now well-established in North America, Europe, and developed Asia Pacific markets due largely to strong government support through vehicle fuel efficiency regulations, as well as purchase incentives. Automakers are beginning to develop offerings that will overcome challenges to market acceptance, such as all-electric range, cost, and charging time.
Meanwhile, companies within the electric power sector of global markets are determining how best they can take part in encouraging PEV market growth. Yet, weaknesses to widespread adoption of EV technologies do exist, such as the dive in oil prices that began in mid-2014. Additionally, now that national markets have found solid footing, some local governments are beginning to phase out or remove purchase incentives.
Still, according to Navigant Research, the global light duty EV market is expected to grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to over 6.0 million in 2024 under a base scenario.
“The end of 2015 marks the completion of the fifth full year of PEV sales to key markets for major automakers,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “The market for electric vehicles has changed significantly over this time period, but the expected changes during the next five years will be even more impactful to the global automotive and energy industries.”
One of those changes, according to the report is an expected increase in luxury electric vehicles. Luxury manufacturers have gradually become more comfortable with PEV technologies, and today make up about 23 percent of the market. This is expected to increase to about 50 percent by the early 2020s.
This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario (conservative, base, and aggressive), region, country, drivetrain, and automaker, extend through 2024. Also provided are forecasts by automaker and vehicle class (luxury vs. economy), along with discussion of the underlying forecast assumptions such as lithium ion (Li-ion) energy density, Li-ion battery prices, and retail fuel prices.