Plug-in electric vehicles are forecast to reach more than 400,000 annual sales in the United States and more than 107,000 in Canada by 2020, but the real story of these sales is in the cities and utility service territories where the vehicles will be located.
Pike Research forecasts that California, New York, Florida, and Texas will lead the way in plug-in electric vehicle sales with 442,895, 196,069, 112,795, and 109,391 cumulative vehicle sales between 2012 and 2020, respectively. Plug-in electric vehicles will represent the following percentages of total new vehicle sales in these states by 2020: 4.5% in California, 3.5% in New York, 1.9% in Florida, and 1.4% in Texas.
By 2020, Hawaii is expected to have the highest penetration rate of plug-in electric vehicles as a percentage of all light duty vehicle sales; 12.3% of total Hawaii vehicle sales will be plug-in electric vehicles.
Among metropolitan areas, New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are anticipated to have the largest sales of plug-in electric vehicles through the decade.
Overall sales of plug-in electric vehicles in the largest 102 cities in the United States will total slightly more than 1.8 million from 2012 through 2020, according to Pike. Nationally, 2.1% of total vehicle sales are expected to be plug-in electric in the same year.
In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, which account for 75% of the Canadian population, will represent 97% of Canadian plug-in electric vehicle sales by 2020. Toronto and Montreal will lead Canadian plug-in electric vehicle sales. Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver are anticipated to have the highest concentration of plug-in electric vehicles by 2020. These three cities will account for 85% of PEV sales in Canada by 2020.
Pike Research selected 14 of the largest utility companies in the United States: Duke Energy, Dominion Resources, Exelon, Southern Company, Southern California Edison, First Energy, FPL Group, Pacific Gas & Electric, Public Service Enterprise Group, Entergy, Consolidated Edison, PPL, DTE Energy, and Xcel Energy. These utilities will account for a cumulative total of 903,502 PEV sales by 2020, or about 45% of all plug-in electric vehicle sales.
Note that this figure represents a decline from 64% in 2012. Southern California Edison will account for the highest cumulative sales in 2020, with 192,383 vehicles in its service area, followed closely by Pacific Gas & Electric with 182,028.[source: Pike Research]