Electric cars won’t exceed 15 percent of annual global sales before 2025, despite the heavy investment by automakers in them, according to a new survey conducted by U.S. financial consulting firm KPMG among 200 automotive executives.
Two-thirds of the executives surveyed believe that combined hybrid and electric-vehicle sales will account for as little as 6 percent of the market in the United States and Western Europe as late as 2025.
But a large majority believes the industry will continue putting larger investments into electric car technology — just in case.
Despite the relatively modest sales projections over the next 15 years, auto execs indicated that a wide range of technologies will be an increased focus for investment.
Over the next two years, 83 percent said that automakers will increase their investment in e-motor production; 81 percent said investment in battery technology will rise; 76 percent expect increased investment in power electronics for the cars; and 65 percent predict increased investment in hydrogen fuel cell technology. Hybrid, battery electric and fuel cell systems are expected to attract the most auto industry investment over the next five years.
Despite the focus on electric platforms, 61 percent of executives said that the optimization, or so-called “downsizing,” of internal combustion engines still offers greater efficiency and CO2 reduction potential than any electric vehicle technology, based on the current energy mix.
No clear-cut winner was identified among e-vehicles for consumer demand until 2025, with 20 percent identifying fuel cell electric vehicles, 16 per cent battery vehicles, 22 percent full hybrids, 21 percent plug-in hybrids, and 18 percent for range-extended electric vehicles.