The number of e-motorcycles and e-scooters on the road will increase from 17 million in 2011 to 138 million by 2017, the majority of which will be powered by lead-acid batteries, according to a new report from Pike Research.
E-motorcycles and e-scooters are already used in significant numbers in China and other parts of Asia Pacific, due in large part to urbanization trends, and people in many countries are accustomed to using two-wheel vehicles as a primary mode of transportation.
In other regions, improving customer perception, government incentives, and high petroleum fuel costs all contribute in some part to the demand growth for electric motorcycles and scooters.
Pike Research’s analysis indicates that the growth in electric two-wheel vehicles will also have a meaningful impact on demand for batteries. The vehicles will utilize both lithium ion (Li-ion) and lead acid batteries.
The firm forecasts that the market for Li-ion for e-motorcycles will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% between 2011 and 2017, while Li-ion for the e-scooters market will increase at a CAGR of 19%. The lead acid battery market will grow, as well, particularly in emerging markets, with the e-motorcycle sector garnering a 27% CAGR and e-scooters a 29% CAGR for the same period.
North American and European markets for e-motorcycles and e-scooters have been hamstrung for several years, the Pike report says due to extremely low demand for motorcycles and scooters in general. However, both are poised for growth, according to Pike.
North America is anticipated to grow to 41.146 annual sales of e-motorcycles by 2017, while Western Europe is expected to grow to 109,945 annual sales the same year. E-scooter sales are projected to reach 27,971 in North America in 2017, with Western Europe reaching 91,625 the same year.
China is the largest market for e-motorcycles and e-scooters, forecasted to be 2.26 million and 13.53 million, respectively, by 2017. Since e-motorcycles will have to be registered, they will experience slower growth (1.8% CAGR between 2011 and 2017, compared to 4.8% CAGR for e-scooters, according to Pike. Asia Pacific, on the whole, is expected to reach sales of 2.7 million e-motorcycles and 19.6 million e-scooters by 2017.
1M Fuel-Cell Vehicles by 2020
Commercial sales of fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs) will reach the key milestone of 1 million vehicles by 2020, with a cumulative 1.2 million vehicles sold by the end of that year. The fuel-cell vehicle market is now in the ramp-up phase to commercialization, anticipated by automakers to happen around 2015.
Pike Research’s analysis indicates that, during the pre-commercialization period from 2010 to 2014, approximately 10,000 FCVs will be deployed. Following that phase, the firm forecasts that 57,000 FCVs will be sold in 2015, with sales volumes ramping to 390,000 vehicles annually by 2020. These figures represent a downgrade from Pike Research’s previous FCV forecasts published in the first quarter of 2010.
Early adoption is likely to be focused in Japan, Germany, and California, where there is significant fueling infrastructure planned.[source: Pike Research]