Total new-vehicle sales for October 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,249,800, a 6.9% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. October 2025 has 27 selling days, the same as October 2024.
The expiration of federal EV credits on Sept. 30 caused EV shoppers to pull ahead their purchases, driving a significant increase in EV sales and inflating the overall industry sales pace. In September, EVs accounted for 12.9% of new-vehicle retail sales, the highest ever, and well above the 8.5% recorded a year earlier.
JD Power projects that 54,673 electric vehicles will be sold at retail in October, a 43.1% decline from the 96,085 EVs sold in October 2024. The projected October figure is a massive 59.9% drop from September, which saw a record month for EVs.
Now that the federal EV credit has expired, the industry is dealing with the consequences of those accelerated purchases. In October, EVs represent just 5.2% of new-vehicle retail sales. On a volume basis, EVs account for 1.0 million of the 1.2 million-unit decline in the industry sales pace compared with a month ago.
Plug-in hybrids are facing the steepest decline, with market share dropping nearly 60%, from 2.2% in September to just 1.0% in October. As a result, automakers and consumers are turning their attention to traditional hybrids, which have gained traction. Hybrid market share has risen to 14.2% month-to-date, up 2.0 percentage points from last October, a near all-time high.
Despite the sharp deterioration in EV sales, the decline could have been worse. Actions by multiple manufacturers to reduce EV prices and increase discounts to offset the loss of the federal credit are helping to maintain EV affordability, thereby preventing an even larger decline in EV sales.
[source: JD Power]
