Plug-in electric vehicles are forecast to reach 400,073 annual sales in the United States and 107,146 in Canada by 2020, but the real story of these sales is in the cities and utility service territories where the vehicles will be located.
This Pike Research report provides data and forecasts for the plug-in electric vehicle market for U.S. states and metropolitan statistical areas as well as Canadian provinces and cities.
The report also includes forecasts for plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales across selected electric utility service territories. The data includes sales forecasts from 2012 to 2020 at each geographic level as well as analysis of major trends in the forecasts.
Pike Research forecasts that California, New York, Florida, and Texas will lead the way in plug-in electric vehicle sales. By 2020, Hawaii is expected to have the highest penetration rate of plug-in electric vehicles as a percentage of all light duty vehicle sales. Among metropolitan areas, New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are anticipated to have the largest sales of plug-in electric vehicles through the decade.
In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, which account for 75% of the Canadian population, will represent 97% of Canadian PEV sales by 2020. Toronto and Montreal will lead Canadian PEV sales.
To forecast service area sales, Pike Research selected 14 of the largest utility companies in the United States: Duke Energy, Dominion Resources, Exelon, Southern Company, Southern California Edison, First Energy, FPL Group, Pacific Gas & Electric, Public Service Enterprise Group, Entergy, Consolidated Edison, PPL, DTE Energy, and Xcel Energy. These utilities will account for a cumulative total of 903,502 PEV sales by 2020, or about 45% of all PEV sales. Note that this figure represents a decline from 64% in 2012. Southern California Edison will account for the highest cumulative sales in 2020, with 192,383 vehicles in its service area, followed closely by Pacific Gas & Electric with 182,028.
These forecasts were created by analyzing OEM vehicle rollout schedules, population and demographic trends in comparison to early plug-in electric vehicle and hybrid electric vehicle owner demographic profiles, and survey data on attitudes toward electric vehicles.
[source: Pike Research]
