U.S. climate goals for economywide net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require rapid decarbonization of the light-duty vehicle fleet, and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are poised to become the preferred technology for achieving this end. The speed of this intended transition to PEVs is evident in actions taken by government and private industry, both in the United States and globally.
New PEV sales have reached 7%–10% of the U.S. light-duty market as of early 2023. Globally, PEV sales accounted for 14% of the light-duty market in 2022, with China and Europe at 29% and 21%, respectively.
Companies in the automotive industry have committed to this transition, with most companies rapidly expanding offerings (Bartlett and Preston 2023) and many pledging to become ZEV-only manufacturers. The combination of policy action and industry goal-setting has led analysts to project that by 2030, PEVs could account for 48%–61% of the U.S. light-duty market.
This transition is unprecedented in the history of the automotive industry and will require support across multiple domains, including adequate supply chains, favorable public policy, broad consumer education, proactive grid integration, and a national charging network.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimates that by 2030 there will be 33 million EVs on the U.S. roads and 28 million EV charging ports will be needed to support them. The majority of charging will be at home and work, with the public network for opportunity charging and less common long trips.
According to NREL, 92% are expected to be private Level 1 (L1) and Level 2 (L2) home EV charging points. Additionally, there will be an estimated (7.6%) public and private L2 home EV charging points at multifamily homes, workplaces, stores, restaurants, and hotels.
A national network of 28 million ports could consist of:
– 26.8 million privately accessible Level 1 and Level 2 charging ports located at single-family homes, multifamily properties, and workplaces
– 182,000 (~1%) DC Fast charging ports would be needed at public charging stations, primarily to support those with no access to consistent off-street parking, as well as for long distance travel.
– 1 million publicly accessible Level 2 EV charging points ports primarily located near homes and workplaces (including in high-density neighborhoods, at office buildings, and at retail outlets).
In contrast to gas stations, which typically require dedicated stops to public locations, the EV charging network has the potential to provide charging in locations that do not require an additional trip or stop.
Home EV charging has been shown to be the preference of many PEV owners due to its cost and convenience. This dichotomy suggests that reliable public fast charging is key to consumer confidence, but also that a successful charging ecosystem will provide the right balance of fast charging and convenient destination charging in the appropriate locations.
[source: NREL]
