A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the global market for medium and heavy duty electric drive buses, offering an assessment across hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell technologies, with forecasts for annual sales, segmented by region and powertrain type, through 2026.
As governments worldwide implement legislation to improve overall vehicle efficiency and reduce emissions, managers of medium and heavy duty bus fleets are looking toward advances in hybrid and electric powertrains to comply and reduce operating costs. After years of testing, solid performance data is available, making fleet managers more confident in the long-term performance of the technology and more comfortable with its return on investment.
According to a new report from Navigant Research, the global market for electric drive buses is expected to grow from about 119,000 buses in 2016 to 181,000 in 2026.
“Electric drive buses of all types are expected to see steady sales growth over the next decade, driven by clean air legislation and government incentives,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “The global market is dominated by the rapid growth of battery electric bus sales in China thanks to recent changes in incentives, while hybrid drive is growing strongly in other markets.”
As battery cell costs decline following strong growth in the consumer electric vehicle market, the battery electric is expected to be the best-selling type of electric powertrain for buses through 2026, according to the report. Meanwhile, hybrid drive sales are anticipated to grow steadily, fuel cells are expected to enter series production by 2026, and plug-in hybrid drive is expected to get more popular for the rest of the current decade before sales start to decline.
The report, Electric Drive Buses, analyzes the global market for medium and heavy duty electric drive buses for each major world region. Both of these vehicle categories are assessed for potential sales of four electric drive technologies: hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell. The study provides an analysis of the market and technology issues associated with electric drive buses, as well as the competitive landscape. Global market forecasts for annual sales, segmented by region and powertrain type, extend through 2026. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.